Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Royal Progress for French 2007 Presidential Candidate

France, Politics and the 2007 Presidential Elections

‘There is unrest on sprawling housing estates, economic stagnation, and unemployment that this spring led to the biggest street protests in decades’ Agelique Chrisafis Guardian, 18:11:06

Area: 545K square miles(Europe’s 2nd largest country)
Population: 63.3 million
Per capita GDP: $29.3,000
Ethnic: French, 93%, German 2%, Arab 3%, Breton 1%, Catalan 1%

History-early to 1969
Julius Caesar conquered Gaul 51BC but by the 3rd century the Roman Empire was declining and from 486 the Franks established the Merovingian dynasty but after Clovis I the kingdom fragmented and it needed the Carolingians in 687 to re-unite the country. Pepin III overthrew this regime and it was his son, Charlemagne who became emperor in 800AD. Norman conquest in 1066 initiated a long period of Anglo-French rivalry. By 1422 England controlled most of France, but, with the help of Joan of Arc, they had been expelled by 1453. France won the 30 Years War (1618-48) under Mazarin and Richelieu but it was Louis XIV who became the richest and most powerful king in Europe. But Louis XV and XVI ruled a bankrupted country led by an ancien regime which was overthrown by the French Revolution in 1789 with Napoleon crowned by himself as Emperor in 1799.

He established a Europe wide empire and transformed French administration but 1815 saw and end of his reign and the Bourbons were restored to the throne. After the 1848 Revolution set up the second republic and in 1852 Napoleon III, nephew of Bonaparte, was in control (Napoleon II ‘reigned’ for only a few months after his father’s abdication. His defeat in the Franco-Prussian War(1870-71) led to the 3rd Republic(1870-1940). France was the battle ground for most of the First World War and-after Daladier and Blum fai8led to cope with Hitler- was occupied by Germany 1940-44, under the Vichy government. The 4th Republic was declared in 1946 but it was unstable and damaged by colonial war. De Gaulle took over as president in 1958 and formed the 5th Republic. His influence was profound on domestic and foreign policies. He resigned in 1969

Political System
The 5th Republic established a unitary state comprising 96 metropolitan departments and 10 overseas. Corsica has its own elected legislative assembly.

Government
The president appoints the prime minister and the Council of Ministers (Cabinet) which is responsible to the bicameral parliament. The president is the most powerful politician in Western Europe with sweeping powers of appointment, legislative, emergency and dissolving of parliament powers. Usually the party of the president commands a majority in parliament but there have been periods of ‘cohabitation’ in 1986-8, 1993-5 and 1997-2002.

Presidency: From 1962-95 the office term was seven years but this was reduced to five in 2002. If no candidate obtains more than half the votes in first round a second ballot is held between the two leading candidates.

National Assembly: this has 577 members for metropolitan France and 22 for overseas depts. Single member constituencies via direct elections using second ballot if first one fails to produce an absolute majority. Five year terms.

Senate: 321 members with 296 for metropolitan France; 13 oversea and 12 for nationals abroad. Elected by electoral college comprising delegates from the national assembly, dept delegates and municipal authorities. Nine year terms of office.

History 1969-present day
De Gaulle’s accession was the prelude to some three decades of right-wing government in France; in practice this meant strong emphasis on national independence, centralized modernization and a heavy controlling hand on the media. It was not that surprising that Paris became the focus of extensive student leftwing riots in 1968 and workers’ strikes. George Pompidou, the prime minister of the autocratic general, took over until his death in 1974. Giscard D’Estaing won in 1974 but was not re-elected. In 1981 Francois Mitterand the socialist won and proceeded-with Communist support- to implement a series of social reforms:
• social policies:
o abolition of the death penalty;
o removal of legislation criminalizing certain homosexual behaviors: lowering of the age of consent for homosexual sex to that for heterosexual sex (since the French Revolution, France had never criminalized homosexuality between adults in private, but since the 1960s until this time, homosexuality was officially considered an illness to be cured);
• economic policies:
o the government embarked on a wave of nationalizations;
o the duration of the legal workweek was set to 39 hours, instead of the previous 40 hours. In February 2000 it was reduced by Lionel Jospin’s government to 35 hours.
By 1983 inflation was rising and austerity(rigeur) reforms were introduced and the nationalizations were reversed. Since 1983 there has been a series of different governments- socialists plus communists; plus the greens(Les Verts); rightwing coalition comprising Chirac’s Rally for the republic Party(RPR) which later morphed into th Union for a Popular Movement(UMP) and the Union for French Democracy.The 1980s and 90s also witnessed the emergence of the neo-racist National Front led by Jean-Marie Le Pen which blames increased unemployment and crime on immigration.
Chirac and Corruption: Chirac and his PM, Juppe commanded a huge majority in the National Assembly but became mired in accusatiuons of corruption scandals in the Paris region.Jacques Chirac was mayor of Paris from 1977 to 1995 and has been named in several cases of alleged corruption and abuse, some of which have already led to felony convictions.
Chirac, as current president of France, enjoys virtual immunity from prosecution for acts preceding his tenure as president, following from decision 98-408 DC of the Constitutional Council on January 22, 1999. This decision itself was highly controversial: the council was consulted on the treaty establishing the International Criminal Court, not about the status of the president with respect to the national criminal justice system. At the time, the president of the council was Roland Dumas, who later had to retire from his functions because of his implication in the Elf Aquitaine scandal.
On October 10, 2001, the Court of Cassation ruled that, while the president cannot be prosecuted by normal judicial means during his mandate, such an impossibility suspends the delays of prescription (statute of limitation). If Chirac does not run for office again in 2007 or is not re-elected, he may then be prosecuted on the several affairs he is involved in. [This might explain why in 2003 some in the presidential entourage floated around the idea of Chirac running for a third term.]
Chirac called elections in April 1997 and the socialist, Jospin won a majority in the Assembly. Jospin became PM with the support of the Communists and the Greens. Jospin insisted ‘co-habitation’ cover foreign as wll as domestic policy and worked surprisingly well with Chirac until he was decisively beaten in the 2002 presidential elections when Jospin was defeated into third palce in the first round of voting. Chirac now appointed Jean-Pierre Raffarin as PM but lost much credibility when voters turned down the draft EU constitution 29 May 2005. Dominique Villepin, formerly foreign minister, was appointed in his stead.
French Economy: France has many economic advantages: large argricultural sector; big industrioal base; and a highly skilled workforce(28m). The service sector comprises 74% of the workforce with agriculature on 3%. GDP growth was only 2% p.a. in late nineties and was 1.6% in 2005. Unemployment is 9% but is concentrated in ethnic minorities who live in suburbs- a cause of the riots in autumn 2005. Poverty, however, is relatively low at 6% compared with 15% in UK and 18% in USA. France has the 6th largest economy in the world and the third largest in Europe.
Following the start of the 5th Republic there was a period of ‘dirigisme’ entailing state control of transport, energy and telecoms. Once Mittereand came to power he foreced through even more state control including nationalization many industries and banks. But these changes were perceived as failures and a subsequent period of ‘rigeur’ followed with some privatizations. However, at 53%, France has the highest level of government spending in the G7. Labour conditions and wages are highly regulated and the government has shares in all major industries and enterprises. The Minimum wage is currently 8.7euros per hour. Employment law is very restrictive and Villepin has tried to introduce changes to help employers take on new workers, especially young ones. Howeveer, even his mild reforms provoked street demonstrations and he was forced humuiliatingly to back down. Moreover, unemployment remains stubbornly high and imposing new contracts on workers has encountered resistance frompublic sector unions and students who have organized strikes and demonstrations.
Because of consistent annual budget deficits the government has sought to cut public expenditure and welfare spending but this has only added to its unpopularity. The widespread urban riots in the autumn of 2005 – mostly by young second generation unemployed immigrants – added to the sense of malaise and a government at the end of its energy and authority. The Economis t(18/11/06) judged that whoever won the forthcoming election ‘will face a faltering economy’. In the three months to September 2006 growth was zero. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for Europe judges that the French economy will soon drift even lower as it has lost competitiveness within the euro zone to German and Italian companies. He believes the minimum wage is too high and that the 35 hour week prevents firms staffing back offices and customer service centres. However the Parid stock market is strong and top companies make 80% of their profits abroad.
Comparison with UK
Annual Growth: UK 2.8% France 1.9%
Unemployment: UK 5.6% France 8.8%
Tax Burden: UK, 37.2% France, 44.3%
GDP per head: UK £16, 100 France, £15,400

Presidential Elections 2007
Socialists: Following their appalling showing in the 2002 elections many had written off the socialists and the oparty of Blum and Mitterand seemed in near permanent decline. However, their depression has recently lifted, not just because of the failing popularity of Chirac’s regime but also through the emergence onto the scene of a shining new star:
Segolene Royal: she was born in Senegal into a military family. Her Catholic colonel father was a strict disciplinarian who did not believe girls should be educated, applied physical punishments and shaved the heads of his sons. There was no heating or hot water in their house. He treated his wife so badly she ran away from home. Being female, the young Marie-Ségolène had to struggle with her father to continue her studies through high school, though she ultimately prevailed. Much to his surprise, she was admitted to the Institut d’Etudes Politiques, an elite university. In 1972, at the age of 19, Ségolène sued her father because he refused to divorce her mother and pay alimony and child support to finance the children's education. She won the case after many years in court, shortly before Jacques Royal died of lung cancer in 1981. Six of the eight children had refused to see him again at Ségolène's insistence. She then studied at the legenday Ecole Nationale, home of the ‘enarques’ who have traditionally ruled France for generations. There she sipped coffees with Dominique Villepin, the handsome, aristocratic poet, future foreign minister not to mention prime minister. She also met Francois Hollande, the future leader of the Socialists and her husband and father of her four children. She began her career as a judge(conseiller) but was soon spotted by the senior socialists and given a job working for Mitterand. She served as minister in Jospin’s government- Environment and then Education- and was clearly ambitious for higher things.
In March 2004 she was elected president of the Poitou-Charantes region; her ‘laboratory’ as some have called it. Here she initiated her socalled ‘listen to the people’ approach focusing on family issues, the welfare state, the environment(biodegradable plastic bags, reneewable energy sources etc), and loosening her party’s attachment to the 35 hour week. In practice, however, she has undertakehn a highly successful ‘branding’ operation in which she has exploited a celebrity image. Her fights against her bigotted father won the interest of a public bored with conventional politicians- though her own background is quintessentially conventional of course. The photographer who snapped her in a bikini during the summer was technically breaking the law on privacy but Royal did not sue and the photos helped advance her campaign to become president. She has also aimed to dominate the news pages with classy clothes and appearances on television. In April she published ten chapters of her book on the internet to lay the foundations of her bid. With both main parties using primaries to select candidates the rules have subtlychanged to become more ‘US’ style. By August she had established momentum and a poll showed her receiving 47% support with her nearest challengers were way behind already: Her closest competitor, former Prime Minister Lionel Jospin (who would later quit the race) received 21%, Dominique Strauss-Kahn 16%, Jack Lang 12% Laurent Fabius 9% and her husband, François Hollande 8%.
She made much of the male dominated aspect of french politics, especially in her own party and there was some evidence of her rivals seeking to discredit her candidacy on male chauvinist grounds. ‘Who will look after the children?’ asked Laurent Fabius, when he learnt she was running. Dealing with the French ‘malaise’ will be very dificulat for whoever wins but and she has eschewed specifics. However she has spoken out against out sourcing suggesting that companies who do so might have to repay state aid received in the past. On social policy royal is relatively tough talking about sending young offenders to ‘boot camp’ and their parents to ‘parent school’. In addition teachers were horrified when she had the temerity to suggest they might work their full 35 hour week instead of moonlighting as private tutors. Her passion for open government has been pioneered in her own region where the deliberations of the assembly have been made open to the public. She also urges ‘cirizens juries’ to monitor elected officials. She claims that as president she would be less extravagant than the imperial Chirac and more transparent.
At the nomination convention-for the first time a US style primary- Royal was triumpahant winning 61% of the votes of party members, with 80% even in the constituencies of her opponents. Extraordinarily, she was a complete outsider, not even sitting on the party’s 54 member contolling board. A crucial factor in her victoryb was the pools showing she would beat Sarkozy in any election and hence the favoured candidate of the right.
Nicolas Sarkozy: Born 1955 of a Hungarian father and a French mother. His afather was ffrom the minor aristocracy who fled at the end of the war, joining the Foreign Legion for five years. He entered the advertising industry where he met his wife of Jewish extraction. He later left his wife and refused to provide financial help, despite being wealthy. He says his humilkiations because of his father made him determined to succeed. He was only a mediocre pupil at school but gained a degree in law and practiced for some years. His first wife was Corsican and they had two children but they divorced and he married the more galmorous Cecelia Ciganer-Albariz, of Rusian extraction. They became quite a feature on television shows, unusually for political marriages in France at that time. However, in 2004 she left him because of his claimed infidelity with other mistresses he is supposed to have met while jogging in the parks near their home. He began his political career as a cxouncillor then mayor of Neuilly sur Seine, a wealthy suburb of Paris. Afteer intervening dramatically in a hostage crisis he entered the government of Balladur even though he had ben seen hitherto as a protégé of Chirac. His patron was furious when he went on to support Balladur in the 1995 presidential elections. Both men are now believed to laothe each other. However he was brought back into government by Chirac and has cemented his palce at the head of the UMP, making no bones about his intention of standing for the top job next year. As Minister of the Interior Sarko was the most popular politician in France and third most important behind Villepin and Chirac. The left criticise him as a populist demagogue and he has many critics in his own party who9 feel he is too authoritarian, almost racist on occasions and blkind to civil liberties.
However Sarko is a brilliant politician with great gifts of communication and as an administrator. His style is glitzy and American and he has no scruples about using his children as symbols for his policies. He has promised to obverhaul france’s ‘social model’ but has shown protectionist instincts over trade. He is opposed to so much state intervention but is mindful of the popularity of the welfare state with excellent social services and good benefits. But as he in on the right he seeks to make his country more competitive. Seeks to deregulate labour market by reducing the money employers have to pay the state foir their employees. Claims he would streamline bloated bureaucracy. Wants to reduce immigration but favours ‘positive discrimination’ for ethnic minorities. In some polls he is running 50-50 with Royal; in others she is 6 points ahead. Villepin has said he might run against ‘the dwarf’ but has not yet announced his decision. But trhere may be a woman candidate as well.
Michelle Alliot-Marie- Defence Minister: is a late entrant to the stakes. An attractive 60 year old, she has an outdoor, active image. As well as being a native of her country she also matches Royal in terns of gender. She is a clever politician who has realised being a woman right now in France is a big advantage- men find it hard to attack women politically. Expert at using her charm to get her own way, she has ben a successful minister of defence. She is favoured by many who hate the diminutive ‘Sarko’.

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There was absolutely no government control of the media under De Gaulle and after him. Newspapers criticizing him were numerous and aggressive, see the "La Cour" feature in Le Canard Enchaine. Except television: De Gaulle used to say: "They have their press. I have my TV."

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