Saturday, October 18, 2008

The Race for the White House 2008

‘He(McCain) hasn’t lost it, but it is slipping away’ Frank Luntz, Pollster, 9/10/08

‘If the election were held today, yeah, he’s toast’. David Johnson Republican strategist, 9/10/08


Only once in the past 50 years has a party won three terms on the trot to the presidency: 1988 when G. Bush Snr won. Then a popular president , presided over a strong economy. Now a hugely unpopular president approaches his last few months in office and the economy is close to possible extinction-though fingers crossed this won’t happen. The contest to take over the White House from George W Bush has been the most enthralling for fifty years. The Democrats managed to honour the attempted replacement of the most unpopular ever US President with two unique categories of candidate; a woman and a black man.

One alone would have been unusual but two at the same time was truly remarkable. Those who claimed the USA was not ready to vote in either for the highest position in their land have had to rethink their positions as Hillary Clinton pushed her candidature to the brink of nomination while Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, is now in a position when he can create history on 4th November. Inevitably, where politics is so personalized, biographies are of key importance.

Barack Obama: born 4/8/61 in Hawaii, where his Kenyan father was a foreign student and his mother, Ann Dunham, was a white American from Wichita. His parents divorced when he was two and then his father died in a car accident in 1982 His mother remarried a man from Indonesia where the family moved in 1967 and Obama attended school there until he was ten. Then Obama moved to live with his grandparents, moving to Los Angeles to complete his schooling in 1979. [His mother died of ovarian cancer in 1995]. Obama admitted dabbling with drugs and alcohol during these years but it did not stop him from attending Columbia University where he studied political science with some distinction.

He then moved to Chicago where he worked as a Community Development Organizer, achieving much in a short time. He entered Harvard law School in 1988, doing very well and then, astonishingly at the time, selected on the basis of his grades and written work, to be the first black editor of the prestigious Harvard Law Review. He was later elected as the first black president of the Review, in charge of 80 editors. He was appointed to Chicago University in 1992, as a professor, lecturing in constitutional law. He married fellow lawyer Michelle Robinson in 1992. In 1995 he wrote a book on race relations which morphed into a memoir, Dreams of my Father. He also worked for a number of private law firms before being elected to the Senate for Illinois in 1996, re-elected in 98 and in 2002. In 2004 he was elected to the US Senate. In July Obama ‘arrived’ nationally when he wrote and delivered the keynote address to the Democratic Convention in Boston. It was a huge success and boosted his campaign for the US Senate. He was only the 5th black Senator to have been elected. He became a candidate for the presidency in Feb. 2008. Obama’s biography is necessarily shorter than that of his opponent John McCain.

John McCain (born 1936)
He was born in Panama where his father was serving at the time as a naval officer. He has Scotts-Irish and English ancestry. He comes from a military family with his father and grandfather as 4 star admirals. He attended 20 schools as service child but excelled as a wrestler and boxer as a young man. He attended Anapolis Naval Academy in the 1950s but his volatile temperament meant he had a chequered career there and finished only 894 out of 899 cadets, despite, as his wikipedia entry says ‘having a high IQ’. He then trained as a naval aviator, gaining a reputation, in the process, as an extroverted party going person-fond of drink and girls and with a quick temper.

He completed training in 1960 as naval pilot ground attack pilot on aircraft carriers. He crashed two of his planes in his early career but became a competent, if somewhat reckless flyer. He married a model, Carol Shepp, in 1965 and had a son to add to her two step children. He was involved in the severe fire on USS Forrestal in 1967, when he was almost killed but managed to save a fellow airman involved. His bravery cannot be questioned. In October 1967 he was shot down over Hanoi and taken prisoner in Hoa Lo prison (the ‘Hanoi Hilton’ as it was called by US troops).
Dragged out of a lake he was beaten and stabbed by North Vietnamese and further very badly treated in captivity, though wounded. But his treatment improved when his captors discovered his father was a senior admiral. He lost 50 pounds in weight and his hair turned white. In March 1968 he was placed in solitary confinement -for shouting obscenities at his captors- where he stayed for two years. However, he refused early release unless those captured ahead of him were also first released. In August 1968 a programme of torture was initiated, with frequent beatings every two hours. He actually attempted suicide but guards prevented this. Finally he signed a ‘confession’, having reached his breaking point, as he later admitted. Injuries sustained left him permanently disabled, unable to raise his arms above his head.

He was released March 1973. He required months of therapy for his injuries but resumed his career, being made commander of a training establishment in Florida. During this time he admits to extra-marital affairs initiated by him. In 1977 he served in the Navy’s liaison to the Senate and absorbed his first taste of politics. In 1980 McCain met heiress Cindy-Lou Hensley whom he married after an amicable divorce from his first wife. His children did not attend the wedding and were not reconciled for some years. In April 1981 he retired from the navy with the rank of captain, heavily decorated from his war service.

McCain initially worked for his father in law’s car dealership but ran for Congress, being returned for the Republicans in 1983, serving out his term as a staunch Reaganite. He and his wife had two children and adopted a Bangladeshi child as well. He was elected to the US Senate for Arizona in 1987. He soon made his mark but became enmeshed as in the ‘Keating Affair’ as one of 5 Senators who gave assistance to a private businessman who had given them favours. His career in the Senate has not been conventional and he has done much in collaboration with Democratic senators. His reputation as a ‘maverick’ stood him in good stead when it has been necessary to distance himself from the Bush presidency, over issues like abortion and global warming for example.

In September2000 McCain ran for the presidency against GW Bush and it was dirty primary campaign with smears re McCain fathering a black child and other accusations e.g. that he was gay and his wife a drug addict. He declared his candidacy for the presidency in April 2007.

Obama’s Primary Campaign: this was dominated by his battle with Hillary Clinton, wife of Bill and part of the Democratic ‘establishment’. He surprisingly won Iowa but Hillary came back in New Hampshire. However, Obama did better at raising money for his campaign and it was obvious he had struck a chord with his emphasis on ‘change’; his meetings were like revivalist religious meetings with vast audiences responding to his oratory. Hillary could not compete in terms of charisma though she won most of the debates held with other candidates. Obama however, established good fundraising via the internet and mobilized young people as no-one has since the Kennedys; millions more are now on the electoral register as a result of Obama’s participation.
One by one the others dropped out but Hillary insisted she could still make it. However, husband Bill, proved less than an asset with his interventions tending to be negative and alienating to his audience within the party. Slowly it became apparent that Obama would win and he even reneged(19th June) on a former pledge to accept state aid for his campaign as he was now able to exceed official limits and wished to avoid the constraints of federal aid. On 23rd August, 40 years to the day after Luther king’s ‘I had a dream’ speech, he accepted the nomination of the Democratic Party at Denver with Joe Biden becoming his running mate. The Economist (23/8/08) rated Obama’s achievement in beating the Clinton machine as ‘monumental’.
Positions
Obama inevitably began to tack to the centre once adopted as candidates tend to, but his liberal positions on opposing Iraq, urging action on Darfur, introducing health insurance for the 50 million without it in the USA, taking collective action against global warming and reforming the tax system to advantage the poorer people. He would close down Guantanamo Bay and pour cash into alternative energy.

John McCain Primary Campaign
McCain faced tough opposition from rivals like Rudy Juliani and Mitt Romney in the primaries and had some difficulty in raising the millions needed to win the long primary road to nomination. Indeed, in January 2008, McCain’s campaign seemed dead in the water and many expected him to give up in favour of the stronger candidates, especially that of the former mayor of New York who had a national hero’s status. However, his only moderate speaking skills and his lack of name recognition compared to the former mayor of New York did not prevent him from making his mark as the most impressive as his party’s would-be successors to George W Bush’s disastrous reign in the White House. By going for the early primary contests he improved his name recognition and established some momentum while Juliani’s decision to hold back until later in the process proved a fatal error. By winning Super Tuesday contests in February McCain never looked back and by early March, with Mike Huckabee beaten, he was confirmed as the winner.

Political Positions
McCain had long been seen as a maverick Republican with policies opposed to his president re immigration –he was more in favour of illegals being given a route to legality; global warming- he agreed man-made actions were responsible and on abortion and gay marriage he was less inflexible. He was also less inclined to follow the religious right in their various extreme ‘culture wars’ positions. However, he agrees with Bush on being hawkish in Iraq and towards Iran and regarding terrorists. He would also close Guantanamo as a blemish on the US reputation. His unconventional background has proved an advantage as US voters decide Bush inclined Republicanism has taken USA on the wrong road.

Mutual ‘attack’ positions
McCain attacks Obama for being inexperienced, rather as Clinton did. He tries hard to avoid even the slightest suggestion of racism, though, as with Bill Clinton, on behalf of his wife, there have been occasions when he has failed. Referring to him as ‘that one’ in a televised debate was seen as openly disdainful though not racist. Republican outriders have tried to suggest Obama is variously, a Marxist, a Muslim and a terrorist but with no real purchase for any of these slurs, none has so far stuck.

Obama attacks McCain mostly for being ‘more of the same’, seeking to identify him with the discredited Bush. His age-72- is also a factor as he would be the oldest president ever, though Reagan was older beginning his second term. Otherwise Democrats seem not to have used slurs overmuch as there is evidence that voters begun to react negatively to such approaches.

The Campaign Proper since August
Given that the Democrats were favoured by 10 clear points over the republicans, it was not surprising Obama held a lead over his rival early August but there were danger signals for Obama at that time. At that time he took a break home in Hawaii to allow a lower profile for a while. Polling evidence was suggesting voters had overdosed on Obama news. Worse, news that close ally John Edwards had had an affair while his wife was suffering from cancer, had not pleased potential Democrat voters. His ecstatic public meetings had allowed Republicans to pin the tag of ‘over confidence’, even arrogance, on Obama. 51% of voters in a Pew poll said they had been hearing ‘too much’ about the man. McCain’s ads compared his rival to Paris Hilton i.e. a brainless ’celebrity’ figure.

Given the fading of Al Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 at about this stage in the proceedings, Democrats were understandably worried. They were also annoyed that a man with a huge fortune and six houses (he didn’t know how many when interviewed on TV) could portray their man as a member of the privileged elite when he was the one who came up the hard way, raised by a single mother and his grand -parents.. Obama’s visit to Europe, designed to improve his low profile on foreign policy produced some amazing footage of 200,000 enthralled by his speech in Berlin but failed to impress US voters who tend to be ethnocentric and the right wing of whom regard Europeans as virtually communist anyway. On 10th August, Obama’s lead over McCain was down to a single point.

Sarah Palin as VP Candidate
In late August McCain chose 46 year-old Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska as his running mate. Compared with Obama’s safe choice of Washington veteran, Joe Biden, this was a bold and possibly rash decision. Palin had been a beauty queen, a mayor of her home town and was known to hold ultra conservative religious right views which were unreconstructed ‘Bushite’ in content. Democrats hoped for skeletons in the cupboard and teams departed north to dig for dirt. However, Palin’s address to the Republican convention was a sensation as this straight-talking handsome woman, with five children with weird names, offered her unabashed Americana aimed at ‘hockey moms’ and ‘Joe six-pack’.

Her arrival ignited the often moribund Republican campaign. It had been high risk but it appeared to have come off. Before her nomination McCain stood at 41% in the polls to Obama’s 49%; afterwards the figures were, respectively: 48% and 44%. Palin delivered a huge shot in the arm to McCain and seemed to havde mobilized the rightwing coalition which had placed Bush in the White House. Things looked very bad for Obama in the second week of September.

Presidential Debates
When the polls are so close, as they were in the two previous elections, the televised debates play a key role in presenting the candidates to the public in a direct form. Obama is more intelligent and intellectually accomplished then McCain but much less experienced. Voters anyway do not always warm to cleverness or Reagan and Bush would never have been elected. At the time of writing two debates have been held and the single VP one. McCain has performed well in both debates, appearing relaxed and confident as well as being mostly courteous but signs of tension and aggression have been evident on the Republican side. Michael Tomasky, US editor of the Guardian, reached a significant conclusion on 6th October: it was ‘substance’ which was proving decisive in these debates.

Convention has it that appearance and demeanor count for more than content in these artificial confrontations but Tomasky points out that these have been different:

‘McCain had more zingers and one-liners than Obama did and was generally speaking the aggressor. And Sarah Palin, with her repeated winks at the camera, had far more folksy ‘I’m just like you Joe-Six-pack’ approach than Joe Biden did. One liners, aggression and emotive warmth are supposed to win these contests, we are told, and they usually do. But literally every poll I have seen show voters think Obama and Biden- who were direct and substantive and between them barely said one folksy or zingy thing- won the debates and handily so. ‘

Interestingly media experts rated the debates narrow draws or wins for McCain but the public disagreed. The USA Today poll poll showed that after the 30th September debate respondents divided 46-34 in Obama’s favour. CNN had it 54-30 and CBS 39-27, with similar numbers saying Obama came over as more likeable. Palin also has not impressed in interviews, trying too hard perhaps to mug the camera and gush feminine charm rather than intelligence. There was some evidence by early October that Palin’s magic was beginning to fade. The satirists made hay with her gauche performances in the media. In response to a question about the banking bail-out on TV she replied:
‘That’s what I say that like every American I am speaking with we’re ill about this position in that we have been put there where it is the taxpayers looking to bail-out, but ultimately what the bail-out does is help those who are concerned about the healthcare reform that is needed to help shore up the economy, um, helping the, oh, it’s all got to be about job creation, too, shoring up our economy and, putting it back on the right track, so healthcare reform and reducing taxes and reigning in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americans and trade we have got to see trade as opportunity not a, a , competitive, um, scary thing, but one in five jobs being created in the trade sector today we, we’ve got to look at that as more opportunity, all those things under the umbrella of job creation, this bailout is a part of that.’

Economic Crisis Hits McCain’s Campaign
Soon after the problems with Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac and AIG, where Bush was seen regularly on television trying to explain why tax-payers’ money was being used to assist the richest group in society, it became clear that McCain’s campaign was being badly hit by the crisis. The Republicans, as the party of business, banking and rich people, was being blamed for the crisis. Steve Lombardo, long time Republican campaign runner is quoted in an October 8 Guardian article that:

‘The dynamics of this election race are being driven almost entirely by the financial situation here in the USA and globally, and that works for Barack Obama.’

He saw no comeback for McCain as ‘voters have decided that the base of the problems they face are the Republican party, George Bush and by extension, John McCain.’
On this day Bush registered a new ratings low of 25%, one point above Nixon in 1974 just before he resigned. Lombardo also argues that attacks on Obama’s character are inappropriate now and will ‘smack of desperation’. No amount of tactical maneuvering over the next 29 days will change anything. 15th September, when Lehman Bros filed for bankruptcy was the crucial day: McCain told a rally: ‘the fundamentals of the economy are strong’. Veteran Republican Senator, Chuck Hagel’s wife did not help much by coming out for Obama as well on the same day.

Issue Standings in early October
The Economist 4th October gave national standings on a variety of issues for both candidates.
1. Economy: O-44; M-36: % placing issue in top 3 concerns, 84.
2. Regulation of economy: O-32; M-29: 6%
3. National security: O-31; M-48: 40%
4. Foreign policy: O-31; M-47: 40%
5. Iraq/Afghanistan: O-40; M-44: 44%
6. Healthcare: O-44; M-27: 44%
7. Immigration: O-30; M-31: 27%
8. Energy and Environment: O-45; M-19: 15%
9. Education: O-44; M-24: 16%
10. Crime: O-29;M-32: 5%
11. Culture wars(values): O-33; M-39: 15%

Current Standings in Polls
Now staunch Republican states like Indiana, which has always voted for a Republican president, both candidates are tied on 48%. Moreover, the key state of Florida, where Bush won in 2004 by 537 votes, it is now too close to call. Poll trends analysed in the article suggest electoral college votes would allocate as follows:
Solid for Obama……..196
Solid for McCain……..143
Too close to call………111
When the ‘leaning towards’ numbers are added from state polls and translated into delegates to the electoral college the numbers are:
Obama………264
McCain………163

When it is realized Obama needs 270 delegates to win, it must be obvious McCain faces a tough uphill fight to win from here.

Palin Scandal: Into this unhappy situation came the announcement on 12th October that the officasl Alaskan inquiry into Palin’s dismissal of a senior official who had refused to sack a trooper from whom Palin’s sister was obtaining an acrimonious divorce. It concluded that Palin had abused her position of power in this instance, a devastating judgement for someone seeking election to the second highest office in the land and who, because of McCain’s age, might have more expectations than most to have to step up to the presidency over the next four years, should McCain be elected.

Conclusion
To return to the opening remarks in this briefing, circumstances are far from favourable for a Republican victory and McCain is far from being a perfect candidate, aged 72, with a history of cancer. But the polls have been close enough to suggest Obama cannot assume victory. The man whom a Pew poll showed was the firm favourite of majorities in 22 countries might well succeed in healing race relations in USA and offer a gleaming role model to young blacks of a successful black man with a happy and intact family. But life is not so simple. He is such an untried novice politically that despite his dazzling gifts as a speaker, voters are still unsure for what he stands. It is by no means assured that he will win.
It is also a fact that he is to an extent a divisive figure. Those who will not vote for him because of his colour, would never admit it but up to 10% of voters might well fall into that category and in the privacy of the ballot cubicle many voters may choose to vote according to their prejudicies. However, if McCain does get elected he will find it virtually impossible to get his proposals past Congress which will be solidly Democratic after 4th November.

Prospects: The Economist is sure that whatever the outcome the future of the USA will be much different under either Obama or McCain. Both favour multilateral solutions for foreign policy. Both want to close Gauntanamo Bay Prison. Both want to join worldwide efforts to combat climate change. Both would travel the world as Bush has never done and both would receive a better welcome: Obama especially so. Both will achieve more with Congress, for which Bush showed open contempt. McCain in particular has a record of bipartisanship; Obama would have useful majorities in both houses. McCain is a classical economic liberal who wants tax cuts and less intervention to stimulate economic growth. Obama has complex intervention plans involving subsidies of various kinds; he aims to reduce the weight of tax on the average person. Obama wants to spread health care comprehensively while McCain wants to reduce costs to improve affordability. On foreign policy, there seems to be more difference than there is. Obama would stand up to Russia and China and not roll over in the Middle east either.
Bill Jones October 14th 2008

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